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以日本现在的实力,真能打赢俄罗斯吗?俄结束战斗只需一天,洞察军事,原创 以日本现在的实力,真能打赢俄罗斯吗?俄结束战斗只需一天_我的网站

一 | According to data collected by AP, more than one million Democrats have registered as Republicans during the course of the past twelve months, most notably among independent "swing voters" in highly-populated suburbs, where presidential and national congressional elections are usually decided. AP in its report published on Monday said the switch also encompassed agricultural regions, poor inner cities, and small towns.,The Democratic voter mass defections coincide with Biden’s approval ratings sinking to historical lows as inflation runs at all-time highs with mid-term elections looming in November.,Meanwhile, the White House’s policies toward the conflict in Ukraine are also becoming less popular. A poll released on Tuesday by Morning Consult Global shows American support for sanctions against Russia is steadily declining - largely because of rising energy costs.,"Workers and seniors are ravaged by an inflationary curse sparked by an inept war against the fossil fuel industry," political analyst and former hedge fund manager, Charles Ortel, said when asked about the Democratic voter exodus.,The Democratic voter defections and low approval ratings, he added, could indicate Biden administration efforts to rally patriotism around his "tough" policies against Russia over Ukraine have failed.,Biden Blames 'Putin's Tax' for Rising Food, Gas Prices in US During Speech on Record Inflation10 June, 18:22 GMT,Political commentator and historian Dan Lazare believes the fact voters are switching parties is less an endorsement of the Republican Party than a loss of confidence in Democrats, especially in their handling of the Ukraine crisis and the related rise in gas prices.,"Skyrocketing gas prices are the gift that keeps on giving - for the Republicans, that is. The war in Ukraine is turning into a Democratic nightmare as Russia continues to reap real battlefield gains," Lazare said. "So, what Democrat wouldn't lose faith given a record like that?",Ortel said history suggests that citizens reluctantly support foreign conflicts even when leaders provide compelling evidence that the causes are justified. Not to mention, US efforts that started under the Clinton administration to push NATO eastward have never been explained nor have potential costs and complaints by the Russian side, Ortel said.,"No sane actor wants perpetual conflict," Ortel explained. "And no American would tolerate parallel expansion into Mexico or Canada by Russia.",Other Drivers of Discontent,Ortel also attributed the voter surge away from the Democrats to the party’s "intolerant" attitude, including toward those who oppose the administration’s Ukraine policies. The Democratic Party used to be a group that embraced cooperation and was tolerant of perspectives that competed with liberal or progressive views. However, in recent years that has changed, Ortel said.,"Particularly under the Obama-Biden Administration, tolerance for other viewpoints was replaced with a ‘take-no-prisoners’ approach towards any challengers," Ortel said.,To make matters worse, the analyst added, Biden administration officials propagate theories and slogans claiming they are succeeding "when even unschooled citizens see clearly that Biden and his team are rapidly wrecking the American economy and what remains of America's standing abroad.",Other drivers of voters fleeing the Democratic Party are the questions surrounding the commander-in-chief’s mental stability in light of nonstop gaffes and concerns over Vice President Kamala Harris’s capabilities, Ortel said.,"Joe Biden is clearly not playing with mental faculties intact nor is Kamala Harris fit to replace him," Ortel said.,Lazare has pointed to Biden’s dismal domestic policy record as another culprit.,"Joe Biden is The Incredible Shrinking President: His one significant success, the $1.9-trillion COVID-19 relief bill that passed in February 2021, has roundly backfired by giving inflation a significant boost. Everything else has meanwhile flopped," he said.,Meanwhile, Lazare added, voting reform is dead in the water, student debt relief is stalled, and there is a dispiriting deadlock over gun control in the wake of mass shootings.,Although the midterm congressional elections were still four months away, all signs already pointed to a historic catastrophe for the Democrats, Lazare warned.,"Predicting an election that's still four months away is risky business. But given that Biden's poll numbers are still sinking - the last is just 36%! - and given that inflation is accelerating, I don't see how the midterms can be anything less than a Democratic debacle," Lazare said.。 日本和俄罗斯,一个是经济科技强国,一个是军事核大国。这两家要是真打起来,结果会怎么样?俄罗斯方面有人曾放过话,说结束战斗只需要一天。 俄罗斯真那么厉害吗,是不是在吹牛呢?其实不是,俄军真有这个实力。

二 | 目前日本自卫队总兵力25.5万人,装备精良,海上自卫队和航空自卫队的装备水平放,在亚洲甚至世界都是一流水漂。 尤其是海上力量,日本有大量现代化驱逐舰、护卫舰,还有出云级准航母和AIP潜艇,反潜和防空能力极强。航空方面,日本在逐步换装隐身战机F-35,机队规模不小,一旦全部交付,数量超百架。单看常规装备的质量,日本超过大多国家。 但日本有个短板:日本自卫队是一支“专守防卫”的力量。战后宪法限制它不能拥有进攻性战略武器,没有远程轰炸机,没有弹道导弹,更没有核武器。 日本最强的海上力量,核心任务是保护海上交通线和配合美军反潜,不是远征打击。 而俄罗斯常规军力这些年退化明显,尤其是海军,苏联时代留下的底子老化严重,新舰补充缓慢。但俄罗斯手里有两样东西,让日本望尘莫及,那就是核武器和战略纵深。 俄罗斯的核武库跟美国一个量级,战略火箭军手里握着上千枚核弹头,从洲际导弹到潜射导弹再到战略轰炸机,三位一体的核打击能力齐备。

三 | 日本没有核武器,也基本没有反导拦截洲际导弹的能力。一旦冲突升级到核层面,日本连还手的本钱都没有。这就是俄方说“一天结束”的底气所在。

四 | 俄罗斯不是用常规部队,一天就能打垮日本,如果真动手,俄罗斯可以在短时间内,用战术核武器甚至战略核武器,让日本丧失抵抗能力。

五 | 当然,常规战也不好打。俄日之间隔着日本海,俄罗斯要登陆日本本土,难度极大。日本海上自卫队反潜世界一流,俄罗斯的潜艇优势会被抵消。所以如果只是常规摩擦,日本能扛住一阵,俄罗斯也不会轻松。

六 | 但战争不是擂台赛,打到后面比的是意志和底牌。俄罗斯是核大国,日本是美国保护下的非核国家。这一点就注定了,日本在跟俄罗斯单独较量时,天花板很低。日本能把俄罗斯舰队挡在家门口,却挡不住从西伯利亚飞来的核弹头。

七 | 还有日本没有战略纵深。

八 | 几个大岛人口密集,工业集中在东京湾到濑户内海一线,俄罗斯的远程航空兵和导弹部队真动手,日本的核心地带全在射程内。

九 | 而俄罗斯远东相对地广人稀,日本想打到莫斯科,得横跨整个亚洲大陆,这还不算俄罗斯的防空系统。 所以,日本对俄罗斯,最好的选择就是别打。美国在的时候,日本还能狐假虎威一下;一旦单独面对俄罗斯,日本的常规优势会被核优势抵消,地理优势会被战略纵深抵消。

十 | 俄罗斯说一天结束战斗,真不是在吹牛。 日本这些年一直想把自卫队变成“正常军队”,修宪、买F-35战斧远程导弹、造准航母,足见日本的野心了,如今日本自卫队距离成为正规军,也只差一步,不得不防。返回,查看更多。
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