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美联储减息在即：新加坡股市的最大赢家竟然是S REIT？_我的网站

A |     美国联邦储备局主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表重要讲话，向市场传递了明确的降息信号。    (ECNS) -- More than a year after the United States imposed reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods, many multinational companies that shifted production to Southeast Asia are moving parts of their supply chains back to China, underscoring the country's enduring manufacturing advantages.    A report by The New York Times cited Alliance Consumer Group (ACG), a Texas‑based flashlight maker, which invested heavily in factories in Thailand and Vietnam after the 2025 tariff hikes. The company found China's manufacturing ecosystem difficult to replace, with flashlights from Chinese producers sometimes priced lower than ACG's shipping costs from Southeast Asia.        ACG COO Phil Laster said the experience highlights a broader challenge: while production can be relocated, China's integrated industrial ecosystem remains difficult to replicate.    China's strengths include its comprehensive supply chain, world‑class infrastructure and efficient logistics.    In Xidian Town, Zhejiang Province, about 60% of the world's flashlights are produced, supported by nearby Ningbo‑Zhoushan Port.    China is also the only country with all industrial categories listed in the UN system, leading production in more than 220 of over 500 major industrial products.    Infrastructure plays a critical role. According to data from the Ministry of Transport of China, the country hosts eight of the world's top 10 busiest ports by cargo throughput, supported by China‑Europe freight trains and multimodal transport.    ACG found costs 12% to 15% higher leaving Southeast Asian ports compared with China, due to weaker supply chains and logistics.    China's efficient business environment has also drawn praise.    In June, the Sino-Saudi Gulei Ethylene Complex Project in Fujian Province, a large single ethylene production facility by capacity, completed a major construction milestone. Faisal Al-Faqeer, Chief Executive Officer of Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC), lauded streamlined approvals and project management during construction of the Sino‑Saudi Gulei Ethylene Complex.    Stable electricity supply further strengthens competitiveness, especially as fuel shortages in Southeast Asia have pressured factories.    Investment data reflects the trend. In 2025, newly established foreign‑invested enterprises in China rose 19.1% year‑on‑year. In the first half of 2026, nearly 4,800 foreign‑invested companies expanded investment.    For multinationals, while production can shift, China's integrated ecosystem — combining complete industrial chains, infrastructure and logistics — remains unmatched.    (By Gong Weiwei)                    。他指出，随着通货膨胀率持续降温并接近2%的目标，现在是调整货币政策的适当时机。分析师普遍预计，新加坡房地产投资信托（S-REIT）将是最主要的受益者，同时，部分工业股和电信股也预计将在减息周期中表现出色。

B | 图源：FACEBOOK鲍威尔在8月23日的讲话中表示，他越来越有信心，通货膨胀率正持续降温，趋近2%的目标。

C | 他提到，美联储政策利率处于20年来的高位。期货市场预测，美联储将在9月17日和18日召开的会议上，决定降息25个基点，到今年底可能一共降息100个基点。资产负债率及利息支出较高的公司收益最大 马来亚银行证券公司的研究主管蒂兰·维克拉马辛格在一份报告中指出，高资产负债率和高利息支出的公司，最有可能因为利率下降，获益最多，他根据几项指标，针对市值高于5亿元的新加坡上市公司进行筛选。

D | 今年上半年，新翔集团、百汇生命产业信托，以及奕丰集团的利息成本增幅最大，都超过一倍。蒂兰认为，减息有助于扭转上述公司利息成本大增的趋势。图源：FACEBOOK就公司营运受到加息影响的程度而言，即息税折摊前盈利与净利息成本的比率，永泰控股、盈科亚洲拓展和鸿福实业受影响最显著。这些公司须负担的利息成本减少，将更有余力应付营运盈利的波动。

E | 以净利息成本与净收入的比率筛选，金光农业资源、星狮地产和翱兰集团的比率最高，分别是533%、430%和266%。

F | 蒂兰说：“利息成本较低，有助改善盈利。尽管如此，还是须留意，与固定利率挂钩的债务，需要时间重新定价，收益可能会滞后。”若持续大幅降息 S-REIT将进一步受惠 如果持续且大幅降息，S-REIT将在三方面受惠。首先，资本成本降低，从而提高公允价值；其次，S-REIT重启交易和资本循环；最后，吸引寻求收益的投资资金流入。凯德综合商业信托、城市发展酒店服务信托、凯德腾飞房地产信托、星狮地产信托、远东酒店信托，以及新达信托是蒂兰的首选。图源：FACEBOOK电信公司的股价向来与利率走势，有高度的反面关联性，即利率升高、股价下跌。经营全国光纤宽带网络的网联宽频信托有可能因减息获益。

G | 蒂兰认为，该股的股息收益率拥有很好的能见度，因而被他看好。工业股也因较低的资本成本，有助于提高按贴现现金流计算的合理估值。按此模式计算，蒂兰指出，从中期来看，偿债成本下降将提高企业利润，拥有强劲订单的新科工程，是他的优选股。美联储降息预期对新加坡市场的影响主要包括降低融资成本，刺激经济增长，增强金融市场流动性，以及提高新加坡房地产投资信托（S-REIT）等高利息成本公司的盈利能力。另外，由于新加坡与美国的利率关系，降息预期也将推动本地货币和股市的上涨。

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Published on:10:51:55